Skating on Thick Ice

Let the bells ring out! The frostbite blisters on my butt from the cold weather I experienced up here at the ranch (120 km north of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada) are not just a figment of my imagination. Apparently all four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously. Meteorologist Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change every recorded, either up or down.

The big surprise is not that this variation in climate occurred but that scientists admitted it. Anecdotal evidence that snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966, freak snowstorms in Jerusalem, Syria and Iran all pointed to a colder than normal winter despite an increase in carbon dioxide.

The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average." China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them. There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses. In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950. And remember the Arctic Sea ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.

The ice is back. Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year. […]Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats." He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon. The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased. It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.

How will the global warming alarmists explain this one. I can see the headlines now: "Global Warming is Responsible for Global Cooling"

Who's Making the Dough?

Global warming is still making headlines these days, but in a way that environmentalists had never predicted, in the form of increased prices for bread and pasta products.

Wheat prices are setting new records at the Chicago board of trade, giving many prairie grain farmers an optimism that they haven't experienced since the late 1970's. To the end users of the cereals such as livestock producers and bakeries the the rampant rise has severely cut into profits. While latter industry can simply pass the increase along to their customers, the beef and hog producers simply have to suck it up as lost revenue.

The doubling of wheat prices in the last couple of months has resulted from a number of factors including a two year drought in Australia and the flux of farmers switching to more lucrative crops such as corn and canola to feed the biofuel industry. While the Australia's problems can be solved by a timely rainfall or two, the burgeoning ethanol and biodiesel facilities are only slated to consume an ever increasing amount of what used to be food.

To many North American consumers, the doubling of the price on a loaf of bread is an annoyance, to the one quarter of the worlds population that survives on a dollar a day it is catastrophic. Even the director of the United Nations World Food Programme has said it is considering plans to ration food aid because of rising prices and a shortage of funds.

Not surprisingly the people who are hardest hit are countries like Afghanistan, where prices for staples have gone up 80% pricing many families out of the food market. Even middle class urban families in Indonesia, Yemen and Mexico are forced to sacrifice education and healthcare in order to put dinner on the table.

How does ethanol and biodiesel production really fight global warming? Since there is direct link between world population and carbon dioxide production, using food grains to power vehicles while letting the poorest of the poor starve to death will dramatically decrease the number of people living on this planet. Less people equals less carbon dioxide so lets all save the planet by filling up with "Mother Natures" gasoline.

Two Writer Don't Make a Wrong

The only thing better than being a global warming scientist these days is being a journalist covering the global warming "crisis". Not only have these two professions spent much time in bed together (trying to stay warm) over the past several years but it turns out that the journalists have also become pleasantly plump if not overtly obese during the same period from gobbling stories that the scientists have been feeding them. While copying and pasting press releases is infinitely easier than actually carrying out investigative reporting, the day of reckoning is right around the corner.

Like the dawning that must have occurred in the media after realizing that "Iraq's weapons of mass destruction" was a fabrication by the Bush administration to justify an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation, so too must journalists around the world begin to recognize that carbon dioxide is not the primary cause of global warming.

The carbon dioxide-temperature increase link only works when both are increasing lock step, the charade falls flat when carbon dioxide is increasing but temperatures are decreasing. The winter of 2007 and 2008 will likely go down in history as one of the coldest in history with snow falling, sometimes for the first time in living memory in Greece, Syria, and Jerusalem plus the worst winter snowfalls in Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Iran.

What will be the spin that scientists put on this new information? That global warming causes global cooling? That cold and snow is just a figment of the imagination? Or will scientists admit that warming and cooling of the earth are just natural cycles that are not significantly affected by small changes in the carbon dioxide levels?

If the United States will defend their decision to invade Iraq to the death of their economy, the death of of their servicemen, and the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, whats the chance of a group of climate scientists rescinding their decisions regarding global warming?

The cold temperatures have devastated crops in China which will further put upwards pressure on the price of wheat, corn and oilseeds already at record highs because a large portion of the crop has been diverted to produce "renewable" bio-fuel to run our vehicles. While the upward movement of food prices will have minimum effect on the rich nations of the world, those in the developing world where wages are little more than a dollar a day will be in serious trouble of not being able to feed their populations.

When the tide turns and the global warming hoax is exposed for what it really is, will the worlds journalists demand that the IPCC give back its Nobel prize and Al Gore return his Oscar? Or will they just focus on another foolish fantasy furnished fresh from the fraudsters facade.

Humans Are Not Responsible For Global Warming

February 11, 2008

The truth is global warming is responsible for humans. Historically, both in the short term and in the long run, periods of elevated temperature have been associated with economic prosperity and population growth while cold periods are correlated to financial hardship and population contraction.

Prior to the latest global warming event that started more than 20,000 years, human beings existed in small family bands involved in hunting and gathering. With the retreat of the glaciers and the northward moving climate, these nomadic groups gradually developed intensive agriculture techniques as a precursor to civilization. A surplus of food allows for the division of labour and development of a social organization, because those not producing food can direct their efforts in other fields such as arts, industry, war, science or religion.

The earliest civilizations found so far are two 15,000-year-old now submerged metropolises found under the Bay of Khambhat, 250 km northeast of Bombay, India. These two cities were abandoned after being inundated by rising sea levels caused by the receding continental glaciers (sea level rise was greatest between 15,000 and 7,000 years ago). As the Khambhat communities disappeared other societies developed simultaneously, throughout India, China and the Middle East shortly thereafter.

After gradually rising from a paltry 1 million people 12,000 years ago, the world population reached a plateau between 200 and 900 AD. The advent of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) in the 10^th century started a phase of rapid population growth as surpluses of food were able to feed an ever-growing throng of people.

During this climatic anomaly, as with every warming event, the plant climatic zones moved northward. Grapes, which were previously grown only to the south in France, were now part of a flourishing wine industry in Britain. The Vikings took advantage of the ice-free seas at this time to establish colonies in Greenland and L’Anse Aux Meadows on the northern tip of Newfoundland.

Following on the heels of the MWP was the Little Ice Age (LIA), a period of temperature reversal characterized by the resurgence of European glaciers, the growth of Atlantic pack ice, and the destruction of crops and livestock as a result of shorter and unreliable growing seasons. Population crashes occurred periodically as the shortage of food caused widespread famine. Many who did not actually die of starvation, were so weakened from lack of food, they easily succumbed to a multitude of diseases caused by bacterial and viral infections.

The negative effects of the LIA were felt in other aspects of life as well. The colder weather caused massive storms that resulted in permanent massive losses of coastal area in the low-lying areas of Germany, Denmark and Holland. Viticulture disappeared from northern regions, and an increase in pack ice cut off the supply route to the many northern communities including Iceland. The Viking colonies in Greenland, now isolated from outside trade, all perished of starvation.

But the LIA was not all gloom and doom. The Thames River and the canals in Holland began freezing to such an extent that skating became a popular winter pastime. Festivals called frost fairs were held on the ice in winter and it was from this era that the story of Hans Brinker and the silver skates was written.

The cold weather at this time is also attributed the superb sound of the Stradivarius violins. A modern theory proposes that during the cold weather, the growth rings on the trees grew closer together. The denser wood was responsible in part with the tonal qualities that make his musical instruments renowned.

In the shorter term, colder than normal weather aberrations are always associated with economic downturn. Probably the best example of this correlation occurred in is 1816 as a result of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora. Also known as the “Year Without Summer”, “The Poverty Year” and “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death” 1816 saw devastated crops throughout the northern hemisphere. The crop failures caused North American prices of grain to increase as much a 700%, while food shortages in Europe resulted in widespread famine.

Besides the year without summer, 1915 and 1992 are two of the coldest years in Canada since records were kept. In each of these two years saw major economic repercussions in agriculture and business. The 1992 episode saw freak summer hailstorms and snowstorms in Ontario, early frost across the prairies and stormy weather across the Maritimes. The unseasonably cold weather negatively affected crops, tourism, construction, and even summer beer sales to the tune of half a billion dollars.

Although advances in technology and logistics of food distribution will reduce the impacts of future short-term temperature decreases, a long-term climate reversal however, could spell catastrophe for billions of people worldwide. Since most of the earth’s land area is located in the northern hemisphere, a progressively warmer climate will add millions of acres of arable land in Canada and Russia as the plant climate zones move northwards. Another cooling episode like the LIA would not only decrease the amount of arable land but reduce the yields as well, severely restricting the amount of food to feed the ever-growing world population.

Grin and Bear It

Unless prominent biologists mistakingly included the misguided environmental protesters dressed polar bears at Ed Stelmach's recent Washington visit, it appears that the great white bears are are not endangered at all, despite the threat that the United States Fish and Wildlife Service is considering listing the polar bear a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act to soothe the frenzied nature lovers.

In fact the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service estimates that the polar bear population is currently at 20,000 to 25,000 bears, up from as low as 5,000-10,000 bears in the 1950s and 1960s. A 2002 U.S. Geological Survey of wildlife in the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain noted that the polar bear populations “may now be near historic highs.” The alarm about the future of polar bear decline is based on speculative computer model predictions many decades in the future. And the methodology of these computer models is being challenged by many scientists and forecasting experts. (LINK)

Canadian biologist Dr. Mitchell Taylor, the director of wildlife research with the Arctic government of Nunavut: “Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present,” Taylor said. “It is just silly to predict the demise of polar bears in 25 years based on media-assisted hysteria.” (LINK)

Evolutionary Biologist and Paleozoologist Dr. Susan Crockford of University of Victoria in Canada has published a number of papers in peer-reviewed academic journals. “Polar bears, for example, survived several episodes of much warmer climate over the last 10,000 years than exists today,” Crockford wrote. “There is no evidence to suggest that the polar bear or its food supply is in danger of disappearing entirely with increased Arctic warming, regardless of the dire fairy-tale scenarios predicted by computer models.” (LINK)

It seems only fair that if the United States enacts a law to protect Canadian polar bears, the Canadian government should enact it own law to open the season on people dressed as polar bears in the United States, that way the Canadian Inuit would not have to face economic hardship when they go south for the winter.

Next Climate Change Conference will be in Edmonton

So here it is, last week of January and out at my ranch 120 km north of Edmonton, the temperature outside is a balmy minus 35 degrees (minus 45 with the wind chill) outside. I on the other hand, am sitting in front of the fireplace contemplating whether or not the environmentalist slogan “Cold Is Cool” has any merit to it.

In reality global warming has made Canada what it is today, literally. Twenty thousand years ago virtually all of Canada was covered by massive ice sheets often kilometres thick, with only pockets of exposed of land here and there. To imagine what Canada’s political and economic would be like if the glaciers had remained, all a person must do is examine the island of Greenland; over 2 million square kilometers, 81 % covered with ice small population, limited accessible resources, a climatic limited tourism season, huge transportation costs and an economy that is largely supported by grants from the Danish government

The truth is Canada has already substantially benefited from global warming already and will continue to do so for many years to come. In this latest round of global warming that began more than 18,000 years ago, Canada has emerged from beneath thousands of metres of ice to become a major economic and social powerhouse in the world. Continue global warming will bring many economic benefits to agriculture, new employment opportunities, and enhanced productivity while minimizing everything negative about living in a cold climate including hypothermia deaths, snow shoveling heart attacks, winter accidents on slippery roads and even some respite from the common cold.

But I digress, it does add some credence why IPCC choose tropical sites like Bali to hold their climate change conferences, because if they held them in Edmonton, the conference would be cancelled due to the cold.

Why I Try not to Read the Letters Section of the Edmonton Journal

The "Letters" section of the Edmonton Journal should be changed to the "Laughs" section, because it gives a venue for all the ill-informed wannabe environmentalists to remove all doubt as to their complete ignorance to current event issues.

Heres a little economic primer to help them absolve their errant ways. Carbon dioxide production equals riches. A few examples proving this point. China's increase in GNP progresses in lockstep with its increase in carbon dioxide emissions. As a corollary, when the Communist economies collapsed in 1991 so did their emissions. United States is the richest country in the world - their emissions are also the highest. Alberta is the richest province in Canada, guess what? So are their emissions.

On January 21, Michael Haack made reference to California's low carbon standard which calls for a 10% reduction in carbon emissions, but he forgot to mention that environmental champion Arnold "I have my own private jet to fly me to the ski hill and five Hummers" Schwarzenegger proposed "steep cuts to schools, health-care programs and other state services... for closing a 14.5 billion budget deficit." as reported in the January 16 Journal on page A4.

J.C. Taylor on the same day pointed out that "the American economy moving to a reduced dependence on not just foreign oil but all oil". J.C. come out from that cave, the sunlight will do you good. Even the White House predicts that U.S.consumption of oil, gas and coal (and their associated carbon emissions) will soar by 20% by the year 2020 (Edmonton Journal March 4, 2007, page A4). The only way that consumption will fall is if the U.S. economy falters (read recession) as it did in following the Arab oil embargo in 1979.

I got two more big laughs from the American "Keep your dirty oil " protests against the Alberta Oilsands mining operations. The first was the people dressed as polar bears. While I understand the American knowledge of geography outside of the United States is similar to Mr. Taylor's knowledge of American oil imports, and that the range of the polar bears is more than 1500 kilometres from the oilsand mines, I was happy to see that they were able to spell Canada correctly.

The second laugh is a little more cerebral (this leaves out both Mr. Haack and Mr. Taylor) but isn't Americans blaming Canada for selling it oil a little like an alcoholic blaming the liquor store for selling him booze?